Median Price Malarky

        The top headline in the November 16, 2007 Marin Independent Journal “Median Leaps to $978,000″ is not only misleading, but it borders on irresponsisble jounalism.  The problem lies in the statistics, and how they are misinterpreted by the media and public.  According to the Marin County Assessor, there are 61,500 detached single family homes and 13, 259 condo/townhouses in Marin.   This is the “population” used for the statistics.  These residences range from one bedroom condos to large estates.      The statistical problem with this population is that it is highly non-homogeneous.  Each month, only a very small percentage of these homes sell (200 to 300) and they are the only ones included in the statistics. More important, each month it is a different sub-set of homes that sell, so to compare the median price from one month to another month is absolutely meaningless, the IJ is comparing apples to oranges.     The median price statistic is rising because more high priced homes are selling and fewer lower priced homes are selling.  The president of the Marin Association of Realtors pointed this out in the article?   Because of this change in the mix, it is  incorrect to conclude that home prices in general are rising or are even flat.  Unfortunately, most of your readers will misinterpret the statistics…especially with headlines like ” Marin Real Estate Prices Climb Again!”     If you look at individual neighborhoods throughout Central and Northern Marin, you will see a mostly downward trend in selling prices with many sellers offering incentives to attract the few serious buyers.  Lender foreclosure sales are also starting to have an impact.  Lenders are starting to “dump” foreclosed properties to get them off thier books.     The fact that the number of sales is dropping (down 30 percent) is another indicator that supply and demand are out of balance and exposes the meaninglessness of the median price statistic.   How can prices be rising if demand is declining?   This is basic Economics 101….supply and demand.   With the exception of some prime Southern Marin properties, buyers can pick and choose, but mostly they are not buying at all.     If the IJ is going to report the median price home statistic, it would at least be helpful to include a disclaimer in the article that the statistic is completely meaningless for determining price trends.This editorial was reprinted with permission from it’s author, Keith Marsh, who is a certified appraiser in San Anselmo.  Keith’s phone number at work is: 415-456-9836 and his web site is: Keith Marsh

Mortgage Market Trends

     The following information has been gathered from fairly reliable sources over the last twelve days.  The opinions are those of the individual, and may not reflect this web sites point of view.  The information provided here, I believe, contributes to an “open forum” or “atmosphere” for ideas that might benefit the general public, and real estate professionals.     This post begins with a link to an article published a week ago in the Marin Independent Journal newspaper:Marin Independent Journal’s Foreclosure Article followed by a response from Fred Morfit of Elite Lending Services:“I’ve had enough! This is what I sent to the IJ after reading yesterday’s front page.  Your article of Sunday rightly points out that the effect on Marin of the upswing in home foreclosures is relatively modest.  Too bad that wasn’t what the headline said.  “Not Immune” and the lead pragraph about the fellow in Mill Valley who lost his home is hardly representative of the rest of the market or the rest of your article.  As sad as Mr.Minto’s story is, it is the logical result for someone who has lost a job and fallen behind on their mortgage payments.  You don’t need a “credit crunch”, a “foreclosure spike”, or a “mortgage meltdown” for that to happen.  If you don’t make your car payments someone from the bank will repo it.  If you don’t pay your light bill you’ll find yourself sitting in the dark.  If you don’t make your mortgage payment you’ll be sitting in the street.

By way of factual correction: 2nd mortgages aren’t “sold” in the course of refinancing as Mr.Minto claimed.  They are simply paid off.  As for the matter of him not being able to refinance: good.  Any lender who would have financed Mr.Minto’s home knowing he had no income source (therefore ability to make the payments) would have been making a truly sub-prime loan.  Isn’t that what got us into this mess in the first place?

Mr.Minto was a poor example used to make the wrong point.  The right point is that despite the problems there is good news in the Marin Real Estate market.  Values are, for the most part, holding.  THe investors are returning to the secondary market so interest rates on jumbo loans are coming down.  If there is a problem it’s that the buyers are inundated with the “Sky is Falling!” tales from all the media outlets which is making them as skittish as feral cats.  It’s time to stop preaching doom and gloom unless you have some vested interest in self-fulfilliing prophesies.  Say it often enough and eventually you will be right!”Fred Morfit: 415-383-8836 / fred@fredloanguy.comWasserman – Boston GlobeFred Anlyan’s “Anlyan Report”MBA and Broker Associate11/4/2007: “This is a healthy market where buyers and sellers who are prepared to negotiate in good faith are having great success every day.  For those who’ve been waiting to see what the market will do, the upcoming holiday lull may present just the opportunity you’re looking for.  My guess is the spring market will be a very active one.  Experienced real estate professionals know the market, they know the neighborhoods, and they know values. 11/8/2007: “Regarding the Condominium market in Marin County only two units have sold in the past week, but enough condo’s went Pending to push the percentage in contract over 15% making this area very much a “buyers market.” Condo’s in Marin continue to be a great opportunity for buyers.Facts about the Marin County Real Estate market:1. The number of single family homes over $1 million available for sale today is 15.7% greater than 2005 and 8.2% less than in 2006.2. The number of single family homes under $1 million for sale today is 71% greater than in 2005, but 3% less than in 20063. The number of condominiums under $1 million available for sale today is 124.8% greater than in 2005, and 1.6% less than in 2006.  

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